Public sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, characterized by skepticism and frustration towards Pakistan's economic management. Systemic issues such as military dominance, corruption, religious prioritization, and ineffective governance are frequently cited as root causes of the crisis. Many view the prioritization of defense over essential sectors like education and healthcare as counterproductive. There are significant criticisms of government and military strategies, with international aid perceived as misused. Historical tensions with India heighten the negative tone and exacerbate criticisms from Indian perspectives. While some express empathy for the common populace, most comments are pessimistic about any near-term recovery without significant structural reforms.

Pakistani Government

Pakistani Military

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Not looking very good, is it now? Though we have lower debt level than many of the developed countries, we don't have that high tax-to-GDP ratio, also we have to pay much much higher interest rate on our debts. Out of 14 trillion upcoming budget (most likely it will have very high deficit), we are going to pay 7.4 trillion PKR for debt servicing before anything else. This is elephant in the room our nation needs to focus on. 

Need to increase tax collection to at least support our budget, and maybe pay back the loans so that in future we can spend that money on development projects. Every year, PSDP seems to stay stagnant while PKR's value continues dropping. All other expenses keep on increasing with every year.

InjectorTheGood

Source: [https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/government-debt-to-gdp](https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/government-debt-to-gdp)

Qauaan

[deleted]

misleading graph as it shows 50% as bottom so some people might assume its neglible (0)

If only millitary can piss off enough Pakistanis to leave the country so dishearted, that they run away by any means possible and add to remitances worth more than 20b, and trust me millitary is working on it in all dimensions day and night now as they should be.

Meri jind meri jaa..

br-mouzone

There's no deeper conspiracy. Read up on rent-seeking economies. Pakistan's elite does not want reforms that the country has needed from the beginning. These include reforms to taxation, land, etc. The elite I speak of includes not just filthy rich landowners, politicians and industrialists but everyone from military officers and civil servants to retailers and so on. Basically the entire upper middle class. Interestingly a lot of their interests overlap with Pakistan's poor. So for instance agriculture subsidies, which benefit the landowning class, are justified as a populist move. In times of windfall, like the 80s and 2000s when Pakistan saw an influx of foreign aid, Pakistanis increase consumption. The reluctance of our industry towards upgradation and policy logjams towards that end means our imports rise. Our unchecked population growth also booms during times of prosperity. The entire structure of the economy is wrong when you compare it to ones that are flourishing. But the main issue is, in my opinion, the overlap of elite and poor interests in maintaining the status quo. Read what various people like Atif Mian and Kaiser Bengali have written. Many minds have come to similar conclusions and offered pretty much the same economic roadmap. The main issue is political. Yes the poor suffer but year on year, the cost of fixing the economy becomes higher for them. That increases the incentive for our elite to seek quick fixes that maintain status quo, i.e. shore up foreign reserves from lenders and benefactors whenever they are close to depleting

Zeeesh

Government was planning to upgrade ML-1 railway line and then also extend it towards all the cities around it. But then military came and stopped them. Threatened them not to build it because it would end their business. Government was also planning to build metro systems in a few major cities, but they didn't allow to build them either. 

Imports were quite low up till 2013. So, military told the government to increase the population of the country so that demand of wheat and palm oil could increase. This in turn would drive their transport business. 

&gt;Real estate has 0 tax, you can make 10 crore rupee profit and state won't ask any question.

Is it 0 percent though? I must have overpaid when I last bought and sold the property. Should ask for refund. Tax is around 6% of the net purchase value of the property for the buyer and almost 3% for the seller. 

&gt;Issues with real estate is, your construction again is dependent on imported construction material, which again increases the import bill, and second, after completion of a house you can't export it outside and earn any dollar note.

Really? Name all the construction materials apart from steel that are imported? In the North, sand comes from either Chenab or Lawrencepur. Cement comes from dozens of cement factories  in Potohar Plateau and KPK. Same for bajri. Bricks are almost always produced locally. Almost no construction material is moved by NLC, rather by the local truckers. 

Issue with real estate sector is not that houses are being built. The issue is the vacant plots, that don't do anything productive. If, houses were built on all the plots, it would bring the entire economy into circulation. It's just not happening because there are no penalties to not build house on empty plots.

Also, NLC's share in total transportation sector of Pakistan is next to none. Almost all of oil or imports travel through private contractors who have absolutely nothing to do with FWO or NLC.

There's good points here and I definitely learned a lot. I would however blame mainly the political instability for the economy, which is obviously caused by the one and only. 

I think most things in this post are highly unlikely. Because a richer Pakistan would simply give a lot lot more money to the military both via their businesses and through the annual budget. So I don't think it's in the military's interest to have an economically weak Pakistan.

Hashashin_

Source: trust me bro. If you wanna expose the army at least do it with numbers backed by evidence.

This individual is forgetting the damage done by the non army ruling elites.
So much misinformation and just illogical claims made in this post. Instead of blaming the army for the damage it has done you come up with this ..

Gohab2001

Thanks for this write up. Very interesting.

However like anything, it’s not just military, but likely a number of other factors too that have created the economic mess, such as the political elite. Though agree military is probably a large part.

EarthMoonJupiter

Even more than military, problem is the oversized population

TangerineMaximum2976

Cool. Hope you’re helping the cause somehow!

PakistaniJanissary

Well written. I don't know the statistics but logically it makes perfect sense. The economic sector aside the military also needs dirty people in government, to utilize them for dirty deeds and be an easy target if they want someone out, because of this also Pakistan lacks behind financially.

Interplanes

Excellent work now pack your bags and get out of here before black vigo come to your house. May Allah protect you.

LocksmithExotic5629

GlowLikeYouDo

So how do we fix this?

Public consensus and political pressure could get the military in Indonesia to step away from the political sphere and large business holdings. Parts of the NLC needs to be spun off as public businesses with a civilian only board.

[Full scale privatization is also not healthy either.](https://pide.org.pk/research/the-case-for-privatization-of-pakistans-state-owned-enterprises/) 

Of course, the likes of the Gulf States would like to have a chunk of Pakistan's SOEs, especially the ones which can be turned around easily with better management and investment. They'll want to use the current dollar cash crunch of the Pakistan state to get its away with it for policies. Wont be surprised if our military gets deployed more often for more of Gulf States' adventurism and antics around the world.

And no, I am not a socialist. But I think its important to keep control of certain sectors of the economy completely in the hands of the Govt.

burgerproblems

PM_YOUR_BOB_N_VAGENE

I think you’re forgetting the smuggling aspect. Everything from a basic necessity like wheat to oil to fertilizers to drugs. Long Live the Pak Army 🫡

Designer-Orange-2293

Pakistan has its problems, but the country is nowhere as close to collapse as some outsiders like to think. I would say unity is pretty strong those Baloch and Pasthun agitators aren't as many as you think. The vast majority of both groups are highly patriotic.

The problem with Pakistan, as of now, is the economic crisis and the impending water crisis, as well as the anger building up against the current government in regards to their handling of the political and economic fronts. Nothing is being done regarding the water situation and already a large amount of areas have a lot less water and the extreme surge in prices is making a lot of people extremely angry.

FuckSeason8

I did a write-up on this. The tldr is at least when it comes to internal security, Pakistan has largely defeated the militants and insrugents.   


 

Pakistan has long had a reputation as a nation racked by violence, insurgency and terrorism, and a state fundamentally incapable of managing the centrifugal forces tearing the country apart. There is a natural tendency to pay close attention to a nation when it is in crisis, yet forget about a nation as it solves its problems. Pakistan, a nation central to the geopolitics of its region, has steadily been winning its fight against violence. In 2009, 11,317 people lost their lives to terrorism and insurgency in Pakistan. Since then, the death toll has steadily declined, and in 2018 only 697 people lost their lives. Today's podcast episode aims to explore the restoration of peace in Pakistan by exploring the insurgency in Balochistan, the region where violence has receded the least, the defeat of the Taliban insurgency in the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas, and the disarmament of the ethnic paramilitary organizations of Karachi, Pakistan's commercial capital.

Balochistan, a province in the southwest corner of Pakistan, is the [poorest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Pakistani_provinces_by_gross_domestic_product) and least [educated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Pakistan) part of the country. Moreover, poverty in Balochistan is most entrenched in the [southern](https://www.undp.org/content/dam/pakistan/docs/HDR/HDI%20Report_2017.pdf) part of Balochistan, the region of Balochistan dominated by the ethnic Baloch. Balochistan, despite its current economic prosperity, has immense economic potential. The bulk of Pakistan's natural gas and copper are [located](https://www.livemint.com/Politics/OVWiUoEapPZuMJaQ9WYbsJ/Pakistan-to-open-up-mineralrich-Balochistan-to-China-Silk.html) in Balochistan. Gwadar, a deep-water port on the Balochistan coast, is the center of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China has [invested](https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/30/will-balochistan-blow-up-chinas-belt-and-road/) $22 billion to develop Balochistan. However, many ethnic Baloch, instead of seeing this as an opportunity, fear that the poorly educated population will be poorly placed to exploit any resulting development, and an influx of outsiders will both dominate the regions economy, and demographically [swamp ](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09592310802061356)the thinly populated region. Balochistan has seen many revolts, [including ](https://www.asc-centralasia.edu.pk/Issue_64/07_Insurgency_Factors_in_Balochistan.html)in 1948, 1958-1959, 1962-1963, and 1973-1977. However, the insurgency since 2004 has been the longest lasting and most brutal. [Tribal leaders](http://herald.dawn.com/news/1153862), [middle class](https://www.dawn.com/news/723987) students, and the regions poor were drawn to armed insurgency against the state. Violence peaked in 2013 when [960 ](https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terrorist-attack/fatalities/pakistan-balochistan)people lost their lives in insurgency related violence. Since then, the Pakistani military has launched [major ](https://unpo.org/article/19110)offensives against militants, and successfully [used ](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09592318.2016.1266128)divide and rule tactics to play tribes and social groups against each other. Despite partial success, the core socioeconomic factors behind the crisis have not been addressed, and in 2018 violence claimed the lives of 388 people.

The most dangerous insurgency in Pakistan once was the Taliban insurgency centered in the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The origins of the crisis lay in the British government's [decision ](https://repository.law.miami.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1318&amp;context=umiclr)to administer the region with minimal bureaucratic presence. After independence, Pakistan retained the colonial system, and [appointed ](http://www.fata.gov.pk/Global.php?iId=29&amp;fid=2&amp;pId=25&amp;mId=13)a Political Agent to liaise with the tribes but to otherwise not extend the administrative apparatus of the state to the region. Guns and radical preachers flooded the region during the Mujahideen against the Soviet Union. The current insurgency in Afghanistan against American forces was seen by many as a continuation of this war, and there was wide spread [popular ](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2007/08/08/pakistanis-increasingly-reject-terrorism-and-the-us/)support for the Taliban. Groups affiliated with the Taliban decided to wage war against not just the Afghan state, but the Pakistani state as well. Violence skyrocketed, with [5,309](https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terrorist-attack/fatalities/pakistan-fata) people losing their lives in 2009, in an area the state had limited authority. However, the Pakistani Taliban overreached when Taliban forces [occupied ](http://content.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1893769,00.html)Buner, just 70 miles away from the national capital Islamabad. The occupation finally jolted the Pakistani military into action, which launched [massive ](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309556452_Operation_Zarb-e-Azb_A_Successful_Initiative_to_Curtail_Terrorism)and concerted military campaigns against the Taliban. After successfully militarily retaking the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, the Pakistani government moved to [incorporate ](https://www.dawn.com/news/1410351)the FATA into the state, and mainstream political parties [won ](https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/initial-results-show-win-for-pti-independent-candidates-in-ex-fata-polls20190721225811/)the most recent elections and [only ](https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terrorist-attack/fatalities/pakistan-fata)50 people lost their lives to violence in 2018. The situation is far from perfect, with terrorist organizations oriented against targets outside of Pakistan still [active](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/04/world/asia/jalaluddin-haqqani-dead-taliban.html), and a [mass ](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/04/17/why-pashtuns-pakistan-are-rising-up/)protest movement emerging against abuses by the Pakistani armed forces.

gnikivar2

&gt;  Pashtunistan/Balochistan  

Pashtunistan has no support among the majority of Pakistani Pashtuns.

While the Baloch insurgency has some support, it's a dommed movement from the beginning. The Baloch are divided among various tribes who constantly feud and compete with each other, as a result, grass-root modern ethnic nationalism never gained traction among the majority of Baloch; This makes dividing them and wooing some sections into supporting the central government through political patronage especially effective.  Another thing going against them is that 40% of the population isn't even Baloch, with the majority of northern Balochistan being Pashtun. Heck, even the main city of the province(Quetta) isn't a Baloch majority. 

Pakistan, while facing an economic crisis, is pretty safe from immediate disintegration. As other posters noted Pakistani security forces successfully curtailed insurgency and militancy throughout the country sans Balochistan.

warhea

I don't think Pakistan is nearly as close to disintegrating. 

Their biggest problem in my opinion is to convert their short term problem of debt into a long term problem. 
The belt and road initiative with it's massive investment in energy production and infrastructure will significantly boost economic progress over the next 2 decades. 

Additionally, I remember Pakistan finding massive off shore oil reserves and how a whole bunch of countries wanted to partner with them in order to extract them. Perhaps the direct revenue from these reserves can be used to pay off the debt in the long term. 

Obviously this economic prosperity will only come if Pakistan and India do not engage in further conflict.

idontlikemangos

OK thanks for letting us know that mysterious "Pashtunistan" movement also exist in my country. I'm highly obliged I'll let ISI know about this hidden secret. 😊

zniazi75

From what I've learnt Pakistan military is very powerful (in Pakistan) and the government struggles to put a leash on them. Apart from harboring terrorists (Osama), they are even accused of assassinating prime minister candidates. Check out the BBC podcast series on the Benazir Bhutto assassination. The podcast went on to win an award and I cannot recommend it enough. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05r6cgx/episodes/downloads

KochuMuthalaly

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geopolitics_banbot

The Pashtun and balochi freedom movement isn't supported by the general population living there, it is only supported by 15% in balochistan for example. The reason its blown out of proportions and seems like an issue is because of Indians  are giving steam to the "movement" online.  The war on terror is in its final stages with 70 000 Pakistanis casualties, if you are referring to the various militant groups operating in pakistan, it was with the army's consent ofcourse however in the past year, the military and civilian leadership have both agreed to firmly act upon the 2014 national action plan and stop any militias from operating in Pakistan to maintain the fragile peace barely established in recent years due to army's intervention on terror related issues. Overall pakistan will see better days in the future owning to CPEC, a growing taxpayer base due to recent initiatives taken by the PTI Gov't targeting the business community right now, the steady decline of terrorism, allowing a free market to exist rather than artificially controlling the rate of paki ruppee through loan money, the govt is taking unprecedented steps to counter the fiscal deficit problem albeit to the dismay of the general populace due to the rising costs of every day items. Moreover a recent historical landmark could've been achieved in solving the kashmir crisis once and for all as mentioned earlier both Gov't and Military want peace now. No wars, no militias, just peace and its consequent contribution to prosperity however this initiative was wrongfully interpreted as a sign of weakness by the RSS inspired fascist Indian regime who violated the geneva convention by using cluster bombs on Kashmiri people then proceeding to violate the simla agreement by unilaterally deciding the fate of the Kashmir as well as using brute military force to suppress Kashmir's voice of freedom and its desire to join Pakistan, now even those like fariqh Abdullah sahab who sided with India say openly "I regret my decision" as all politicians in Kashmir have been placed under arrest and are being tortured like Abdullah. Now pak having a claim to kashmir and its population being primarily Muslim, sees this as a threat to not only kashmir but also the regional peace because it is criminal under international law to forcefully try to change the demographics of a region, might have worked in Palestine because they are few in number but there are literally millions of muslims in kashmir, you cant change that despite the curfew and lockdowns.. so overall Pakistan will prosper in the coming days IF a war with India does not start which seems inevitable at this point due to the actions of Modi sadly. I tried to present this all in an unbiased manner, correct me where I'm wrong and also share your thoughts on what I said if it pleases you! Have a nice day

despicableheart

Pakistan is doing a lot better now than it did 10 years ago, things are only going to get better. India on the other hand though is going down the path that Pakistan came out off. I hope better sense prevails and Indian voters realize how much worse modi is for Indian economy.

nanananai001

The biggest problem that the country faces presently is the economic crisis and the rising inflation as one poster here said. The terrorism situation has improved considerably within the country which has seen major sporting events like the Pakistan Super League (a cricketing event) being held in Pakistan as well as the resurgence of the Pakistani cinema industry. The country has a booming middle class and with a decline in terrorism, little to no electricity load-shedding, the improvements in infrastructure under the CPEC and the BRI initiative, the next decade promises to be a significant one for us.

waqar911


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Always three phases in huge debt that’s hard to service

1. The borrower is ecstatic about getting the loan and is highly grateful to the banker whom they love. Thanks the bank for their generosity.

2. The borrower becomes overstretched and overwhelmed at the burdensome payment, usually after the shine on what ever the money was borrowed has dulled.

3. The borrower hates the banker, claims they were being screwed by the totally greedy banker all along.

rethinkingat59

&gt;"The agreements, heavily favoring China, were poorly negotiated, resulting in the project being over-promised and under-delivered. The public and media were misled by the then minister of planning and his team to portray CPEC as a significant economic game-changer for Pakistan and the region," Khalid said.

This was discussed ad nauseam as a potential possibility when accepting infrastructure loans from China. Surprising?  Not really unless I'm missed something.

arctander

**Bloomberg - The Myth of the Chinese ‘Debt Trap’ in Africa**

Over the past two decades, China has built large infrastructure projects in almost every country in Africa, making some Western powers uncomfortable amid wider concerns about Beijing’s intentions on the continent. However, a deeper look shows that accusations of so-called debt trap diplomacy are—at least so far—unfounded.  
  
On this episode of *Africa+*, Bloomberg pulls back the layers of conventional wisdom and fraught geopolitics that have colored the world’s view of China’s African ambitions. What those goals are and how Beijing is going about fulfilling them appear to be more complicated than previously thought. 

[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/the-myth-of-chinese-debt-trap-diplomacy-in-africa](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/the-myth-of-chinese-debt-trap-diplomacy-in-africa)

Archive link [https://archive.ph/dx3fX](https://archive.ph/dx3fX)

thinkingperson

Government loans are so stupid. You are putting everyone in debt without fully understanding every aspect of how things will go down. It's on too big of a scale to ever fully understand if it will work out. Best to just not do it.

ShdwWzrdMnyGngg

The latest Economic Survey of Pakistan reveals a significant increase in public debt, indicating economic challenges despite projected GDP growth. High debt servicing costs limit developmental efforts.

Pakistan's Economic Challenges and Debt Crisis

Why This Matters

Public Sentiment Summary

Highlighted Comments

Parties Involved

What the people want